The UN Population Division recently reported that India is poised to surpass China as the world’s most populous nation in the near future due to higher fertility rates. At a news conference, UN Population Division Director John Wilmoth explained that by the end of April 2023, India’s population is expected to reach 1.4 billion people, slightly higher than China’s record of 1.4 billion in 2022. While China’s population has reached its peak and is projected to decline to below one billion by the end of the century, India’s population is projected to continue growing for several decades.
The two countries have taken different approaches to managing their population growth. In the 1970s, China implemented policies to reduce fertility rates, such as the “one child policy” in the 1980s, which led to a decline in fertility rates. Meanwhile, India’s fertility rates have remained higher. Currently, India’s fertility rate is just below the replacement threshold of 2.1 births per woman, while China’s fertility rate is one of the lowest in the world, at 1.2 births per woman on average over a lifetime.
However, both countries are facing the challenge of supporting their growing aging populations, with the number of people aged 65 or over expected to nearly double in China and more than double in India between 2023 and 2050. This calls for greater social support and protection for older citizens.
Moreover, Wilmoth stressed the importance of addressing climate change and promoting sustainable consumption and production. He warned that increasing populations and incomes per capita should not undermine efforts towards sustainable development. To mitigate the most severe impacts of climate change, he emphasized the need for all countries to move away from over-dependence on fossil fuels.
